Why is the US stockpiling arms in Israel?

Earlier today we reported on an unusual and large arms shipment being sent via sea from Greece to Israel by the US Government. The Pentagon has quickly moved to issue a denial saying that the shipment has nothing to do with the Gaza situation. Reuters, who broke the original story quotes Defense personnel. Air Force Lt. Col. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said he would not comment on shipping routes for security reasons but confirmed a shipment of ammunition to Israel was planned. "The delivery of ammunition is to a pre-positioned U.S. munitions stockpile in Israel in accordance with a congressionally authorized 1990 agreement between the U.S. and Israel," Ryder said. "This previously scheduled shipment is routine and not in support of the current situation in Gaza." We can understand the Pentagon's desire to distance the shipment from the Gaza conflict, but it raises the question of why the stockpile is being increased at this time?

It could be that the US sees the potential of the Gaza conflict breaking out into a larger regional conflict, which may dictate US involvement. Hezbollah has so far shown restraint, but one does have to question how long that will last. Hezbollah, perceived by many as a proxy for Iran, may not ger directly involved but could use rogue Palestinian factions in Lebanon, as its proxy. Already some rockets have been launched from Lebanon raising Israeli fear of a second front, but Hezbollah denied it fired them. It may well not have fired them itself, but it is not a far-fetched theory that Hezbollah didn't stop a rogue faction firing them, either with tacit or implied permission. A second front from Lebanon could be a step in the direction of a broader regional conflagration. However, given US influence in Lebanon such a breakout of conflict with Israel would not require US involvement. Syria is unlikely to start a war with Israel, but certainly could b e an enabler. the current US Administration has missed a golden chance with Syria to engage in diplomatic relations. Several of the US' allies have pursued that route, including France and Britain. Syria therefore site somewhere in the middle of the spectrum of US concerns - not an ally like Egypt is or as Jordan was prior to the Gaza conflict, but certainly no friend at this time.

Which brings the attention back to Iran. Is the US arms shipment increasing the stockpile in Israel in preparation for a requirement to strike Iran? The arms shipment is large and unusual. The ship chartered for the delivery has a capacity of 989 20 foot containers. That is a large shipment of whatever it is the US are sending to stockpile on Israeli soil. The ship requested had to be capable of carrying 5.8 million pounds of weapon load - again an extraordinarily large amount according to brokers familiar with the industry. What would the US potnetially need in high volume and large numbers, stored in preparation of some action. The obvious conclusion would be that the US is shipping down specialized bunker busters that could be effective against the heavily fortified Iranian nuclear facilities. Many analysts have speculated that the Israelis would not have the military capacity to destroy the Iranian nascent nuclear facilities, only delay their progress. It is probable, therefore, that the US would need to have specialize armaments in region should their be a need to strike at Iran.

Even if this scenario appears appealing, it still can't be the whole story according to some we have talked to in the region. Why would the US ship these weapons to Israel and not to one its many bases it has in the region? Even with the potential for the US to use Iraq as a launching base for an Iran attack specifically prohibited under the newly signed SOFA agreement (allowing for the extension of US presence in Iraq), the US still has many other regional options. Is the strike against Iran, if it happens, to be staged from Israel? Is the the sudden impetus, after 7 tolerated years of Hamas rocket attacks, to clear the Gaza of Iranian-influenced Hamas? It is an interesting conspiracy theory. The US could well stockpile the necessary weaponry in Israel, retro fit the most advanced air force in the region (Israel) for specialized missile delivery? It would also explain the extreme reticence of the US to intervene in curtailing the Israeli Gaza incursion. it could also explain the magnitude of the Israeli clearance of the Gaza and the relative acquiescence of Fatah, who could inherit a levelled Gaza Strip relatively free of Hamas influence. It is but speculation at this time, but we will watching the patterns over the next few months to see if evidence mounts to support such a theory.

There is yet another theory floating around the coffee shops in the region. That the arms are meant for delivery to Fatah. Arming Fatah if they have reached, as some suspect, an agreement with Israel would certainly give them an advantage over Hamas. Israel could strike Hamas a serious blow, and leave a rearmed and requipped Fatah to finish the job. Hamas has made allegations before about the US supplying arms to Fatah, but the sheer volume of this US shipment would seem to imply more than traditional small arms. 949 containers of weapons is a lot of small arms, and if we believe the Pentagon that the weapons sre not meant for Isreal, then it makes an intriguing question - what is in the containers and where are they going? This is an issue to monitor, and we will keep an eye on developments to see if we can figure out the mysterious contents and their destination.

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